Monday, June 26, 2006

6/26 Rant

Sorry to all you 5 or 6 people that actually frequent my blog. I've been at my cabin and I've just been all around lazy lately. I thought I'd post some pics from my cabin:

















Apparently these were the only two that I actually saved on my phone. I must have been too [distracted] ;) the rest of the time to remember to hit the SAVE button, but I really like these two. I could look at that sunset for the rest of my life...

Anyways, moving on to pointless politics.

Today, after the whole controversy about the New York Times once again publicly disclosing the terrorist surveillance policies of the Bush Admin, I decided to go over to the conservative blog captainsquartersblog.com to see what the right wingers over there were saying about it.

Recap: the New York Times today put out an article that described the Bush policy of tracking "terrorist" financial records and transactions. I didn't read the story because I don't subscribe to the paper, but apparently Congress was briefed about the program and there are 'auditors' that oversee it to check for any abuses.

I posted a comment on the page, expecting some angry feedback. What actually happened was that I was lambasted all day long for being an idiot, a kool-aid drinker, a conspiracy theorist, an extremist and a paranoid absolutist. Wow... tough crowd. All I really said was that I thought it wasn't right for one department to have limitless power in terms of gathering, tracking and handling any kind of personal information. And then some stuff about Ann Coulter being nuts. Pretty reasonable stuff I thought. They all thought I was retarded, but like me, they have the right to their own opinion.

Global Warming: I'm passionate about this topic because it means so much (if true) to our very existence, and the existence of our planet's current ecology. I've checked out both sides of the argument, which both have compelling arguments to make. But with a little more research into the claims of people who say global warming is a crock, it's easy to see that these people are desperately grasping for any kind of fact that can back up their argument. They use 'facts' that should more appropriately be called weasels, because they only tell you part of the truth.

There isn't one credible scientist (not on Exxon Mobiles payroll) out there that will dispute the fact that global warming is real and that it is caused by human activities.

Now the Supreme Court is going to hear a case brought up by many eastern states who are claiming that the government should have been regulating carbon emissions for a long time now to combat warming.

Three main conservative claims on global warming:
1. The Earth currently does seem to be in a warming period, though how warm and for how long no one knows. In particular, no one knows whether this is unusual or merely something that happens periodically for natural reasons.

No one knows huh? How about 11 international science acadamies which recently joined together to declare that, "It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities … . This warming has already led to changes in the Earth's climate."
http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf

How about the Weather Channel which has recently come out boldly claiming that human-caused global warming is real?

2. The ice in greenland is actually getting thicker in the middle.

Absolutely right. Perfect weasel. The ice over Greenland seems to have gotten thicker by half a meter in the last 10 years. But wait neo-cons!... there's one more thing you should know. The same scientist who produced this study actually concluded that this was evidence of global warming. It's very simple to understand if you ever studied weather in junior high. When the air and sea become warmer, water evaporates much more easily. When water evaporates, it condences into clouds... clouds rain or snow on the mainland. The warmer it is, the more water evaporates, the more snow on the mainland of Greenland. Simple, simple, simple.

3. The Earth has only warmed by one degree in 100 years!

This is an over-generalization. The average temp all across the globe has increased by one degree, which may not seem like much, but can have a huge impact on the environment as many prominent scientists have told us. The temps at the poles have actually increased by an average of 12 degrees fahrenheit. This is where the impact from global warming seems to be centered. Recent scientific studies have shown that due to melting ice caps, Polar Bears are drowning. They're now resorting to cannibalism to survive because they can't reach their prey anymore.

Gotta go... summer is a hectic time. I'll have a big huge post tommorow on global warming that no one will read. It just makes me feel better to get it all out.


One of the world's most respected climatologists, NASA's James Hansen, even used a dice metaphor to make it clear.
If you paint one side of the die red, you'll roll red about one in six times. Paint four red, and you'll roll red on average four in six times.
Manmade greenhouse gas emissions, Hansen explained, were loading the dice so that we'd have such extreme weather far more frequently. And, exactly as predicted, we and the world have — well above what the frequency of any natural weather cycles can explain.

4 Comments:

At 2:01 AM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All I really said was that I thought it wasn't right for one department to have limitless power in terms of gathering, tracking and handling any kind of personal information.

Thats like the white southerner saying "All I did was call him a word related to his athropological race and/or skin color and he totally flipped out on me." There was blood in a lot of noses on both sides before the day was done. ;)

As to global warming, I think a lot of what you refer to as "fact" is not. I am a published "researcher" in materials science, a field unrelated to paleoclimatology. However, because of this you could deem me a "scientist" of sorts, I suppose. I would gladly go on the record to say this:

The defense, and theory behind global warming is 90% poor scientific method and 10% politically motivated.

My thoughts on global warming, from what I consider to be a true "scientific standpoint" are these:

The earth warms and cools in cycles on its own. We don't really understand this phenomenon.

Humans are insanely egotistical; therefore, drunk on our own power, we attribute these global changes to ourselves.

Here's my rebuttal to most of the global warming theory. Some of this is taken from a conversation I had with another blogger. How does one measure the global temperature from centuries ago? With proxy data. They look at coral, tree rings, glaciers, and the like. From those characteristics, they extrapolate the temperature at the time. What these studies don't cover is the accuracy.What’s the margin of error?

There are (at least) two. The first is that we are dealing with a subset of data points. There is no way to measure the actual global temperature because it would require measuring the temperature in every square inch of the globe and averaging them. So, we are dealing with a statistical sample. Every statistical sample has a margin of error. In this case, we are dealing with an entire planet. How many data points are there? Hundreds? A few thousand? Even with that many data points, it is a large approximation considering the size of the planet and the relatively fsat change in temperature across a given area of terrain. How much error does this produce? I've never seen it calculated.

The second margin of error is in the samples themselves. Let’s take tree rings, for example. Scientists look at tree rings and based on their relative width, calculate the temperature for a particular year. How accurate is this? Not very. Local variations, like a diverted stream, an unusually rainy season, animal activity, and the like can affect a tree beyond the average temperature of its location. Furthermore, it is impossible to calculate the temperature with certainty. Again, we’re back to the margin of error. Perhaps they can calculate the average temperature within a few degrees, but not down to fractions of a degree which is what all of these studies are focusing on. Also, once scientists come up with their models that extrapolate temperature from tree rings, how to they measure it to make sure that their model is correct? There is no way to actually travel back in time and actually test these hypotheses for a year to see if the model is correct, a pivotal part of the scientific method. So the modeld themselves are an educated guess - at best.

Finally, if the earth is as warm as it’s been in 400 years, or even 2,000 years, that begs the question, “so it was even warmer back then?” If the earth was warmer at any time in the past than it is now, then the notion that human activity is the sole and primary cause of changing global temperature is bunk. No one has accurately explained (to me) what causes the "other" spikes in global warming activity.

Here's some facts you won't get from the MSM or most of the global warming activists. I use the word activists because many have, in my opinion, abandoned science in order to "take a stand," a laudable past time but thoroughly ruinous to the pursuit of scientific "truth" as knowledge.

The entire energy output of the human race for the past 8,000 years doesn’t equal the energy contained in a single solar flare.

We have only been measuring temperature data with any sort of reliability or regularity for ~150 years, while global warming "authorities" will regularly admit that the earth (weather and seismic) tends to move in 10, 100, 1,000, and perhaps even 10,000 or 100,000 year cycles.

Newsweek, Scientific American and the journal Nature all published articles or papers from the 1950's to the 1970's predicting that a new ice age was coming on (due to overall global cooling during that timespan) and that by 2000 New York would be under a glacier.

Al Gore says that many glaciers are disappearing. However, when the Spaniards conquered the Americas they plotted and mapped many of the glaciers in South America. These glacial fronts have moved as many as 100 miles to and from the sea. Many of them were actually further back then than they are now.

 
At 2:04 AM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good article if you're looking for objective discussion from both sides:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/06/global_warming_fever.html

 
At 9:48 AM EDT, Blogger Matt said...

wow kaggie you really have alot of time on your hands. very interesting points, but also easily disputable. look at our other planets. venus has way too much carbon dioxide in its atmosphere, and because of it the planet is 7 times hotter than than ours. this is attributed both to its closer proximity to the sun and because it has higher levels of co2 (a greenhouse gas). Mars has very little co2 and is much cooler.

there are so many "facts" to look at and just because you're skeptical about how temperatures are measured in glaciers over the past hundreds of thousands of years, doesn't give you grounds to "debunk" any kind of global warming claim.

scientists measure the isotopes in the atoms found in air bubbles in glaciers. from this, they can determine what the temp was up to 400,000 years ago. from this data, we've seen gradual increases and decreases in the level of co2 in waves of ice ages. whenever the level of co2 is high, the temp is high.

we are currently on our way to having 3 TIMES as much co2 in our atmosphere in the next 50 years as we ever have in the past half a million years. more co2 in the atmosphere than any of the spikes we've seen in the past.

now, i'm sorry there isn't "hard evidence". i'm sorry that God isn't coming down from heaven to tell us directly "REDUCE YOUR CO2 EMISSIONS OR DIE".

ever heard of the phrase, its better to be safe than sorry?

if almost every credible scientist on the planet stands up and says its real, it won't matter. as long as there is some kind of doubt out there, people like you will never buy it.

by the way, every argument that you make here can be heard in every talking point on the program that comes on after sean hannity every day on 100.3 fm, republican radio.

look at both sides of the argument... it doesn't take much research to realize that this just might be a problem. for you to just debunk it with a few baseless claims and not give it a second thought does the facts and the science no justice. its not hard science, but it sure makes sense to me.

 
At 10:15 AM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

if almost every credible scientist on the planet stands up and says its real

I don't know how you can make that claim. What makes a "credible" scientist? One that believes in global warming? Its a catch-22. Not to mention that there is a large population of dissenting climatologists out there that don't get heard because it is political funding suicide to speak against it. A researcher without a grant is just a beaker-washing flunkie.

Scientists love their theories (=money). They also are obsessed with publishing (=money). Any time a scientist sees something in data that he thinks he can write a paper about, he does so. The more sensational his reports are (inflated or no) the more likely he can get a better journal (=money). To quote Zoolander—“Global warming. So hot right now.” (pun intended) These guys are raking in the dough on this topic. That in of itself is reason to continue to press the theory.

One of the recent presentations I attended covered the topic of global warming in the stereotypical manner, and it went something like this: His argument was that temperature and the level of CO2 in the atmosphere are related, therefore one must be the causal (independant) and one must be the reactant (dependant) variable. He then said that humans have been conducting a massive worldwide experiment to determine this relationship - pumping massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere for the past 50 years. He then shows a CO2 graph since the 1950’s of the percent of CO2 in the atmosphere, zoomed in to 320-360 parts per million (ppm) on the scale, with years on the bottom scale. He shows how CO2 has gone up 30 ppm over the past 50 years, and the global average temperature has done so also. Then he triumphantly declares himself victor of the problem by stating “Therefore, temperature MUST be dependent on CO2 levels.” This is an example of simplicity gone awry. Nevermind the fact that 30 ppm is 0.003% of the whole (or that 30/360 is a change of 8.3% and does not reflect anything close to an 8.3% change in temperature, or really any other linear or even exponential relationship), or that he can’t account for various dips and rises in temperature (other than to say seemingly self-sufficient one-word solution buzz words like “CFCs” or “Scrubbers” as if the United States’ actions mitigate the millions of people in other countries using CFCs and dirty factories). The shortsightedness is not in the conclusion, its in the starting assumption. They beg the question. When you simplify such a complicated issue into only two variables, you really can choose any outcome you please.

Most climatologists will agree that the Earth phases in and out of warming and cooling cycles, which typically last 10^n years (1,10,100, etc). They shirk, however, from the notion that our temperature data points really only can reliably cover the past 150 years. That is 1.5% of one trend. To put this sort of assumption in layman’s terms, this is like predicting a touchdown after a gain of 1 on the 1 on the first play. Or like calling the outcome of the game after 1.2 strikes thrown to the first batter of the first inning. It simply isn’t logical.

When you approach science as a religion you no longer can accurately use the scientific method as you begin to contend with "belief" and "faith".

I happen to be of the opinion that both CO2 levels and temperature are co-dependent variables, arranged in a highly complex matrix with any number of similarly important variables, not the least of these being global position in orbit relative to the sun and solar activity. We know temperature increases CO2 levels because high temperature leads to more open land for more grass. We also know that CO2 leads to higher temperatures (as you pointed out). However, we do not know that the system is inherently unstable or prone to cataclysmic readjustment. That is pure conjecture, unsupported by any research or fact.

I read an interesting article that talks to a few of the scientists you claim don't exist, and one exerpt I thought particularly interesting was this:

They emphasized that the study of global climate change is, in Harper's own words, an "emerging science" and added: "If, back in the mid 1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary." Despite claims to the contrary, there is no consensus among climate scientists on the relative importance of the various causes of global climate change, they wrote.

I have looked at both sides of the argument. When I see an objective study that follows true scientific methodology without setting out to prove something (a horrible way to research) then I will gladly erase my initial premises and form new hypotheses, as all true scientists should do.

 

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