Thursday, June 29, 2006

Important: DO NOT BELIEVE WHAT YOU THINK

Every once in a while I run across a short phrase that holds a novel full of wisdom in just a couple of words. I saw this one on a bumpersticker a couple of days ago.

Just wanted to make it clear that I DO NOT KNOW EVERYTHING. I won't ever pretend to (I'll try), and if I do, please call me out on it. With that said, I do not believe everything that I think because I know that I am not all-knowing, and my young mind can't hold too much information at one time anyways.

When I say I'm a liberal, I really mean that the way that I'm thinking right now is closer to the way your "stereotypical" bleeding heart liberal would think, more than anything else.

I'm working on a global warming post still. I thought I had it done like 4 months ago, but there's too much information to fit into one post. I really am trying hard to look at both sides, but the more I look, the more I become convinced that there is a concensus on hard facts and data in the scientific community that it's real. Sorry everybody, but it looks like this next post is going to have to be biased towards the truth once again. It's hard to be fair and balanced when the other side is totally and completely wrong. Now I guess I know what those egg-heads over at faux news feel like.... either I'm right, or I'm totally full of sh*t and there's a huge conspiracy to make me believe in something that's not real. Either one could be true.

3 Comments:

At 9:52 AM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I really am trying hard to look at both sides, but the more I look, the more I become convinced that there is a concensus on hard facts and data in the scientific community that it's real. Sorry everybody, but it looks like this next post is going to have to be biased towards the truth once again. It's hard to be fair and balanced when the other side is totally and completely wrong.

You do realize how silly that sounds, don't you?

Thats exactly what I was talking about when I said that many of these studies beg the question. They want to find out that humans are influencing temperature, so, surprise surprise! they do. You're never going to learn anything about anything if you come into a situation with an mindset like that.

Numbers of consenting people don't matter in truth or in science. This is important to remember. If 900 people tell you that the sky is purple and that iron is really edible and has the consistancy of cheese, will you believe them? Clearly, no...even if they're "the world's leading sky-colorers and iron cheese producing sciencemongers".

I understand this isn't nearly as clear-cut a topic, but that doesn't mean you should trust numbers blindly. The one guy that talked about relativity when everyone else said it was bunk turned out to be right.

One thing that is important to remember is a theory can have the proper predicted outcome but use the wrong reasoning. For example, the Earth appears to be in a warming trend recently; we have recorded data that indicates this. However, this may or may not be caused by humans, and it may or may not even be bad. (I have yet to see an article predicting global warming that even attempts to show pros and cons; for instance, higher temperature means more plant life, more growing seasons in more places. Siberia may become the new breadbasket. Why hasn't anyone even spent effort thinking about these things, if they're truly being objective?)

A good warning sign for smarmy science is when the author of the paper either gets on a soap box or starts making recommendations or predictions beyond the scope of his work. Remember: good papers present findings, not opinions.

By the way, Matt, my name is Matt too, and I'm also a college student. I also don't profess to know everything. I read extensively, and I am getting a technical degree (mechanical engineering) as opposed to a business degree; perhaps therein lies the difference between us. Your education has focused on intangibles like "people" and "markets" while mine has focused on facts.

 
At 11:51 AM EDT, Blogger Matt said...

don't get so mad matt. i've heard those same talking points over and over again. your right, if i could have, i would have voted for gore in 00'. i love the guy, he says what i already believe to be true. notice how i made a mention of global warming in a post that was title: DO NOT BELIEVE WHAT YOU THINK. i'm really just amusing myself.

right again, i like to deal with ideas and people. i like social sciences. i also love cold hard science and i understand that there is really no way to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that human caused global warming is real.

i just don't understand how you can't come to the conclusion or at least the assumption that we might be the cause of it. almost all of the evidence out there points in that direction. so, as a mostly logical person, i've already come to the conclusion in my thinking that warming is probably, most likely, almost certainly related to the explosion in global population, and industrial expansion.

no i don't hate capitalism! i think we should be focusing more on cheaper energy technologies that don't pollute the environment. maybe that would be better for the economy, i don't know. it seems to me that if there's even a hope for alternative fuels out there that live up to these guidelines, we should be seriously considering them instead of just TALKING about them like bush does.

and no, i don't think that any good can come from humans changing the ecosystem of the entire planet. an ecosystem that is NOT in equilibrium. it's irresponsible and just plain stupid.

 
At 1:30 PM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dunno why you think I'm mad, because I'm just writing.

we should be seriously considering them instead of just TALKING about them like bush does.

What do you want him to do? Invent the oil-killer himself? Honestly, I don't see how the President of the US can do anything more than talk about it.

If we're the cause of global warming, what caused every other major global climate change before us? Dinosaurs and their cars, no doubt?

i think we should be focusing more on cheaper energy technologies that don't pollute the environment.

I agree entirely; I think the person that comes up with an alternative to oil is going to make a fortune. And I know for a fact that there are millions of dollars being invested in research to that end right now.

I'm not saying we should pollute, or be intentionally dirty. I just don't see any evidence that even remotely leads me to believe that this is anything more than a bandwagon. Al Gore's involvement really just makes me question it all the more (would you take it seriously if Bush began talking about global geoscience changes that meant that all the worlds volcanos were going to erupt if we don't DO something about it? Considering his string of degrees?).

 

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